Editorial
Kayye's Krystal Ball: 2010 Edition
By Gary Kayye, CTS
Welcome
to my 11th annual Kayye’s Krystal Ball feature article, including my
personal predictions for the upcoming year for Professional AV, and
even some  HomeAV technology, trends and products. If you’re a regular
reader of this column, then you know that each year I actually start by
reviewing my own predictions from last year’s column. Last year’s
column you can read here: http://www.ravepro.com/issues/2009/01/rpvol7iss1/index.htm#feat1
Why do I do it this way? Well, when I was a kid I loved TV and always
loved watching those TV psychics sell their predictions to viewers who
called in with their credit card numbers. Every year, they would
reappear on TV selling the next year’s predictions. But, I could never
remember what they predicted to see if they were right. I always
wanted them to remind us of their predictions from the previous year so
I could see if it was worth the price (I knew my dad’s credit card
number).
In
this case, I’m free. You didn’t pay to read this, so keep this in
perspective. But, if I may say so myself, over the past ten years, I’ve
actually done a pretty good job – or been really lucky.
So, on to the review of the 2009 predictions and then I will jump into my predictions for 2010.
Projectors will become smaller:
I predicted that the so-called pico projector would arrive this year,
and I was right! The tiny ones are LED-lit DLP projectors  that are
truly small enough to fit in your shirt pocket – and some are even
battery operated. They’re not bright, but, truth be told, a friend of
mine in sales at Apple told me that Apple purchased thousands of them
for their educational sales force and they actually make presentations
from their iPhones directly to them. They aren’t bright (only between
70 and 150 ANSI lumens), but turn off the lights and project a 30- or
40-inch image that a table full of educators can see and, voila, Apple
has seen it pay off.
And, guess what? In 2010, you’ll see pico projectors debut in cell phones!
Laser projectors will debut in 2009:
I predicted we’d finally see the long-awaited debut of the laser-based
projector. Again, I was right (or lucky – two for two). Mitsubishi
launched the LaserVue in January of 2009 at the CES show. So far,
they’ve only shipped the 65” display and it’s not being offered as a
pro product, but the consumer display has received rave reviews.
Operating
at only 135 watts, it uses significantly less power than a traditional
60” LCD display does – but at 10” deep. However, it’s brighter than an
LCD monitor, it’s colorimetry is nearly perfect and it’s native 1080p.
You’ll see a pro version in 2010 from a few manufacturers out there in
addition to Mitsubishi (e.g., JVC and potentially Sony), and we’ve even
got a few commercial laser products from others. A new company called
Spudnik introduced a commercial product, mini-cubes of sorts, using
laser projection, and Evans & Sutherland introduced an 8K laser
projector that they showed at InfoComm.
Flatter flat screens:
I wrote that in 2009 we’d see super-thin flat screen TVs -  mirroring
more like what you see depth-wide in a laptop’s LCD screen -- I even specifically pegged it at less than one inch deep. Well, I am 3 for 3.
In 2009, Sharp, Samsung and Sony all launched ½”-deep LCD displays (all
of them using LED). The first generation of these super-slim LCDs
weren’t as good, image quality wise, as their thicker cousins, but for
a first generation product, I was super-impressed. In 2010, you’ll see
a bunch more sub-1” LCDs (all using LEDs, again) and the second
generation will be worthy of just about any installation out there.
Green:
I predicted that we’d all start talking about going green and that this
would be THE trend of 2009 from consumer AV to Professional AV. Well,
I’ll give myself a 50/50 on this one. Green was definitely a trend we
saw at both InfoComm and CEDIA, but it wasn’t THE biggest AV-oriented
technology trend by any means. Sure, everyone’s talking about going
green, and even the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has issued
Energy Star AV Spec 2.0 that aims to bring green specs to some pro AV
gear out there, but, it’s all still in the infant stages.
However, read on as in my 2010 predictions, I talk more about where
GreenAV is headed and what we need to look for as 2010 will definitely
offer advantages to Integrators that understand GreenAV and how to
leverage it with clients.
CloudAV systems:
I predicted that 2009 would bring us the debut of the cloud-based AV
systems. What are they? Well, right now, we pack meeting rooms and
lecture halls with AV gear that run themselves. Imagine if the
projector had a network device in it (like a browser) that could
navigate ANY network (like a typical browser navigates Web sites) to
find any file or video and PLAY it right there in the room or in any
room on campus? Or, maybe all rooms on campus, simultaneously.
Well, again, I’ll give myself a 50/50 here. Why? Cloud-based AV is
definitely here in the form of the digital signage market. In fact,
content is totally digital in virtually every digital signage
application as content is sent (or sometimes even streamed) over the
network to a PC-based media-player that just plays whatever it’s sent,
on-demand.
Truth is, we can use that same media player in many AV applications
(e.g., classrooms, meeting rooms, etc.), but as the digital signage
market itself is still an emerging market for commercial AV
integrators, we have yet to adopt the media player concept beyond the
digital signage application.
But, we will. When? Well, I think there are three factors that will
slow this down: first, Windows-based media players haven’t been as
reliable as they will be with new Windows 7 OS; second, commercial AV
integrators aren’t all in the DS market, yet, so there is much in
trepidation about using a technological concept such as a media player
to handle all content; and third, there is a lot of analog-based legacy
content devices that we need to deal with in classrooms and meeting
rooms that don’t exist in the digital signage market.
With all that said, I do think InfoComm 2010 will bring our market AV
systems-based media content players as options for designing systems.
Control systems will be dumbed down:
Nailed this one! In fact, probably the biggest launch at InfoComm was
Extron’s TouchLink configurable touch-screen  based control systems.
Not programmable, but configurable. TouchLink, along with Extron’s
MediaLink, Crestron’s QuickMedia and a host of other simplified control
systems out there, have all arrived. Even HomeAV-based Universal Remote
Controls has launched a ProAV division to introduce simplified control
into the commercial AV market. This is NOT a fad, it’s a trend.
So, watch out programmers. If 100 percent of your business is Crestron
and/or AMX programming, you WILL be impacted. But, have no fear,
you’ll likely have more work than ever before in helping configure
client systems for Integrators, in addition to helping to simplify
systems using MORE control systems gear – not less!
iPhone/Android control:
I predicted that in 2009 we’d see a few totally new control system
companies enter the market with their own iPhone and Android-like
interfaces that will allow you to build fully-functional rooms and
control them seamlessly with iPod Touches, iPhones and other
inexpensive multi-touch color screens.
Well,
enter SquareConnect and RedEye, both companies that are 100 percent
iPhone-based control systems. Both are brand new and targeting the
HomeAV market, but BOTH told me that they have their sights set on the
Pro market in 2010. However, in both cases they said they were waiting
to address the commercial AV channel with a larger touch screen
interface (like an iPhone on steroids) from Apple – something I expect
you WILL see from Apple by the end of February – as they felt the
iPhone size is better suited for HomeAV applications and a tablet-like
touch screen using the Apple OS would be better for our market.
HD-VTC Year 2009:
I wrote about how 2009 would be a boom for videoconferencing. Wow, was
that an understatement. In fact, as I write this, Cisco just got the
needed 90 percent shareholder-approval of the $3.4 Billion  takeover
offer from Cisco – making videoconferencing totally mainstream.
Polycom will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this as the entire
VTC market will explode in 2010. Remember I said that!
And, finally, the Microsoft Rumor: I talked about how there was a
strong rumor that Microsoft was trying to buy a manufacturer in the
professional AV market. Well, they were and the economy is the likely
inhibitor in any sort of deal. But, I fully expect with Cisco’s push
into commercial AV (in both VTC and digital signage), we will see
Microsoft make a buy. Crestron, maybe?
So, my results for 2009: seven out of nine – not bad, I’ll take it! :)
Now on to the 2010 predictions:
The ECON-O-Money:
Money will be flowing again – but only in limited applications. Banks
are still not lending – no matter what you hear on TV. But, the
government itself is spending on AV technology and for 2010 the results
will be staggering. Everything from education to energy will see
budget bloating in AV economies and those of you out there poised to
take advantage of those markets will see double-digit growth in 2010.
But, the trigger-point for buying will shift from bargain-basement
pricing to GreenAV. We expect to see the government implement a
GreenAV strategy so leveraging it with not only Energy Star compliant
AV gear but also energy-saving non-compliant systems will benefit.
In addition, I believe you’ll see growth in the worship market,
videoconferencing and even in the corporate market. Not double-digit,
but high single digit for sure.
The IT factor:
In my Sight Lines column in this issue, I write about how IP-enabled AV
matured in 2009 and now we have the capability to integrate truly
network-enabled systems. Well, in 2010, this will become more than a
trend. In fact, we expect to see up to 20 percent of newly integrated
AV systems in 2010 to be network-enabled and then monitored with one of
the network-monitoring tools I wrote about that are offered by AMX,
Crestron or Extron.
2nd generation LED-based projectors:
2009 brought the first generation of dim LED-lit portable projectors.
Generation 2 will have a bigger impact on our market.  Why? Well,
you’ll see a host of install-grade projectors that will be 1000-1500
ANSI lumens with basically endless lamps (50,000-60,000 hours – or
essentially five-year lifespans). For the most part, Generation 1 was
aimed at the pico projector market. But, just last month, Christie
Digital launched their highly anticipated MicroTiles – an LED-lit DLP
based projection system that can be tiled to build whatever size or
shape display you need. This represents the commercial AV’s first
opportunity to integrate LED-based projection. But, 2010 will bring a
plethora of integrate-able solutions from both rear screen and front
screen projection systems – some even competitive to flat screen
installs since they’re shallow-depth technologies as the light source
(LED) doesn’t require the complicated light path of traditional lamps.
Plasma’s death march:
Two years ago, I wrote how it was clear to me that Plasma was a
technology with little manufacturer support beyond 2011. Well, I  stand
by that and by year’s end, there will be only one manufacturer left
supporting plasma flat screens. LED-based LCD flat screen displays
will dominate the market by the end of 2010 and Generation 2 of these
are install-worthy. So, if you’re using Plasma, stop!
Speaking of LED LCDs:
I was told not to tell you this one, but I feel the need to come
clean. In most cases, the Consumer AV and Professional AV LCDs will be
virtually identical: Flat screen LCD manufacturers want you to think
their pro displays are significantly different than the consumer-based
systems (and in some cases they still will be in 2010), but MOST LCD
manufacturers will be making the consumer LCD and the pro LCD on the
same assembly line by the end of 2010. Why does this matter? Well,
it’ll make it hard for our market to make claims that pro monitors are
the only thing our customers should be using in meeting rooms and
classroom installs. But, as this production shift occurs in 2010, the
consumer LCD will be as good as the pro LCD so you’ll be competing with
Best Buy for the client business.
So, what do you
do? Again, and as I have written many, many times over the past two
years, you need to shift your business model to one where you don’t
care where they (the client) get the displays (and you’ll actually
continue to sell them yourselves – and likely more than ever before in
2010), but, you want to integrate the rest of the system to maximize
the performance of the image. Selling $10,000 flat-screens with a 30
percent margin will disappear in 2010. Gone!
Speaking of shifting to a service-based sales model:
Wow, VUKUNET:  Normally, I don’t write about a specific brand or model
in this annual predictions article, but this time there’s no avoiding
talking about the impact of NEC’s VUKUNET to the ProAV market – and
even LG, Samsung, Sharp, Sony and Mitsubishi will benefit from VUKUNET.
How? Well, simply put, VUKUNET lets commercial AV integration
companies take advantage of the other 80 percent of the digital signage
business we’ve never captured: advertising. In selling and integrating
digital signage systems, we’ve installed the media players, the CMS
software and the signs themselves in the form of LCDs, but the big
money’s been in the content all the time. The ad market on digital
signage in only the first year a system is up and running is four times
that of the hardware market. So, we’ve done all the hard work while the
advertising networks have contracted advertisers to put ads on the
displays and made a fortune taking a cut of the ad revenue. Well,
NEC’s VUKUNET is designed to allow you, a commercial AV integrator, to
offer your client a one-stop web-based system that will stream ads to
their digital signs and both of you will take a piece of the
advertising pie. This is the EASIEST way I have ever seen for an
integrator to take advantage of a recurring revenue stream (in this
case advertising) without doing any additional sales work. You don’t
have to sell the ads -- all you have to do is make sure there’s an
Internet connection to the digital signage players you integrate --
that’s it.
Cat5/UTP domination:
Neither Crestron, nor Extron will publically confirm any specific sales
data on their Cat5- or UTP-based signal routing solutions, but I can
tell you it’s significant. If you’re not already routing and
distributing via UTP (Universal Twisted Pair) wire, you will be by the
end of 2010. The quality of these systems for most applications is
virtually identical to RGBHV-based routing and both companies’ lines
have continued to grow over the past 12 months. 2010 will be the year
that UTP signal routing will garner 25 percent of the routing and
distribution market overall. It’s a trend towards simplification that
all started way back when Extron pioneered the first MediaLink system
back in 2001.
Acquisition fever:
Some companies are undervalued and some are in financial trouble. In
addition to the dozens of “mergers” that will occur in the dealer
channel  in 2010, the manufacturer consolidation will continue at a
fever-pace in 2010. Cisco is the biggie in 2009, but there will be
bigger in 2010. What about Polycom and Hewlett Packard? I already
mentioned Microsoft earlier in this article – and, although I can’t
imagine Crestron founder George Feldstein selling out, anything’s
possible when the word Billion is following numbers. And, I wouldn’t
put it past Dell to make a play in AV – they’ve been in the classroom
integration business for over a year now. These may never materialize,
but biggies will in 2010.
Social media marketing goes mainstream:
You’ve sat back and watched the growth of Facebook and Twitter in a
matter of a few years go from nowhere to  nearly a Billion members
strong – now you have to do something about it. And, I predict you
will. My company, rAVe Publications, launched a FREE Social Media
Guide aimed at helping Professional AV dealers market their companies
via social media and save thousands of dollars by reaching a more
personality-based marketing channel than stupid yellow-pages ads. By
year’s end, I think 50 percent of you will have your salespeople
Tweeting about their day and you’ll even unlock access to Facebook,
YouTube and a host of other social media Internet outlets realizing
that there’s an opportunity there – even if right now you think it’s a
waste of time and company efficiency.
Final Words
Well, that's it for this edition of rAVe Asia. Thank you for spending time with us as we muse the industry's happenings. To continue getting the newsletter, or to sign up a friend, visit the website: www.raveproasia.com
To send feedback please write to info@raveproasia.com
rAVe Asia is produced by Spinworkz Pte Ltd, a Singapore-based publishing house in collaboration with rAVe Publications from the USA.
Spinworkz Pte Lte publishes the bi-monthly print magazine Systems Integration Asia and rAVe Publications is headed by industry visionary Gary Kayye, CTS, and which publishes the following e-newsletters: rAVe ProAV Edition, rAVe HomeAV Edition, rAVe Rental [and Staing], and rAVe Ed [Education].
Disclaimer:
No part of this e-newsletter is to be reproduced, whether mechanical or electronic without the prior written consent of the publisher. Views published in this e-newsletter do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher or that of the sponsors. Whilst every care is taken to ensure the accuracy and honesty in both editorial and advertising content at issue time, the publisher will not be liable for any inaccuracies.
Please note that the content in rAVe Asia does not necessarily reflect the opinions of
Kayye Consulting DBA rAVe [Publications] or any of its sponsors. Kayye
Consulting DBA rAVe [Publications] is not liable for any of the content or
opinions published in rAVe Asia.
Spinworkz Pte Ltd: 51 Bukit Batok Crescent, #06-10, Unity Centre, Singapore 658077. Tel: (65)63162716 Email: admin@spinworkz.com
|
